Various methods of displaying probabilities are used.21 A risk exists that one may incorrectly emphasize the probabilities as being clinically useful when the treatment effects are, in fact, not different from the null beyond chance.4 Probabilities can be fragile when the network is sparse. The ranking of treatments may change drastically when a new trial is introduced into a network.Returning to our example from figure 1, table 1 shows the rate ratio with credible intervals (that is, Bayesian confidence intervals) of each treatment compared with placebo and the associated probability that each treatment is best. Only for four of the eight active treatments do we have sufficient confidence that they are better than placebo.
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